On Thursday Governor Mitt Romney will give a speech titled “Faith in America” at the George Bush Presidential Library in College Station, Texas. The Library and Romney have both stated that the venue should not be seen as an endorsement, per se. However, it is surmised that having the speech originate from the Bush Library will give the appearance that Romney has the unofficial backing of the Bush clan.
On Monday, Rush Limbaugh had a great monologue about the Liberals looking for someone to run against. They have invested so much time and effort into running against George W. Bush and he isn’t on the ballot. This means they need a suitable substitute to be on the ballot in November.
Rush further theorized that they have found that candidate in Mike Huckabee. Like Bush, Huckabee wears his Christianity on his sleeve and refers often to the positive influence it has had in his life. The Liberals, right or wrong, believe that this will allow them to paint him as an extension of Bush and persuade people that he will not bring “change” to Washington.
Most conservative Republicans, however, are drawn to the message of faith and see it as a great plus in a candidate. Consequently, Huckabee’s numbers are shooting up as he and groups supporting him focus on his religion and his conservative social record. (In fact, Huckabee is so certain of the reception the religion angle will get him, he plays it nearly every chance he gets. He has worked so hard to ingrain it into his public persona that it has almost become a farce.)
Romney is also a man of deeply held faith. However, he seems to be barred from expressing it in part by the political implications of being misunderstood. But also, I think, because of the respect that Governor Romney has for his own and other’s religious convictions. Unlike Huckabee, Romney is unwilling to make God the butt of his jokes and the tag line for his presidential campaign.
Into this supercharged atmosphere comes the Romney speech. On Religion. At the Bush Library. It would seem that Romney is going to play his trump. In one morning he could take the place of Huckabee as the “most Bush-like” and of caring most about religious sanctity in the nation.
The tricky thing about politics is that any asset is also a liability. Anything that can be used to build you up in the eyes of your supporters can also be used to tear you down by your enemies. Is having the Bush seal of approval going to help or hurt him in the general election? And what about being openly religious?
Personally, I think that overall it will be an advantage. I also think that Romney is less concerned with the politics of these questions than he is with being disingenuous. Don’t get me wrong, Romney’s campaign is definitely calculating the political ramifications of every move he makes. That said, he will not abandon his values or character simply for political gain. And this, ultimately, will make him a stronger candidate than what the Democrats will produce.
There seems to be some “conventional wisdom” in the media that says Mitt Romney will HAVE to give a speech addressing the issue of his faith to win over the Christian Right. A panel of media experts was even convened to discuss the idea in depth. (See Mormonism threatens Romney’s presidential nomination, panel says) The consensus is that to win the presidency he must make a speech to allay the fears of evangelicals.
To back up this opinion, is the various polls conducted that suggest that a large portion of Americans would be “less likely” to vote for a candidate who was Mormon. (See The Mormon Speech No More) Then there are a vocal few, like Senator McCain’s mother, who publicly express their doubts about the Mormon faith and its members.
Romney has been open about his intentions concerning “the speech.” He is happy to answer any questions about his faith as they come up. At this time his political advisors do not think a speech focusing on his faith would be wise. However, there may be a time when it is necessary to address the issue at length and he is prepared for that eventuality.
There is speculation, again from the learned media types, that Romney is simply angling for the time when the speech will make the biggest splash. Waiting for excitement about the race to build to get the maximum coverage but in time to influence the outcome of the primary races.
What the elite media analysts haven’t thought about, is the fact that there has been no indication that a “JFK-type” speech about Mormonism would change any minds. Polls may say that people would be “less likely” to vote for a Mormon candidate but they don’t say “less likely” than what. To me, all this says is that all else being equal, the persons polled would base their decision on the issue of candidate’s religion.
In this race, however, very little is equal among the candidates. There are huge political and idealogical differences even among the Republican candidates. In the general election, the Democrat nominee can be expected to be virtually a polar opposite to Romney. At this point, the issue of Religion will diminish in significance.
Religion has not stopped Romney from developing prominent leads in early Primary states where he has campaigned heavily. There is little reason to think that if he is able to win these states that he will have to materially alter his message to attract voters in other states. Even in South Carolina, where they are known to have heavy religious prejudice, Romney has managed to tie for the lead in recent polls.
It seems that the only ones who are waiting for a Mormon speech are the liberal political analysts who are waiting for the Republicans to crash and burn. The speech would bring religion to the forefront and give them material to twist and use against him. To give the speech at this point would be to provide opponents with ammunition without answering the concerns of potential voters.
Romney has a carefully and intelligently run campaign. There is no need to explain a religion that most voters are not really anxious about. But like a good Boy Scout, Romney is prepared, just in case.